My Photo

Photo Albums

Blog powered by Typepad
Member since 02/2004
AddThis Social Bookmark Button

« I Predict a Riot | Main | Ideas for Democrats? »

Tuesday, 04 November 2008



There is no Bradley Effect - repeat after me. :)


We'll see this evening!


Maybe I'm cheating writing this afterwards, but I wasn't paying attention yesterday...

1. Bradley -- slight Republican benefit.
While it exists it's less than 7% and quite localised; it'll be highest in safe Republican states. Among the Dems who may not vote for Obama because he's black it'll be most common among the swing voters -- the Dem core is fairly immune to BE. The reverse Bradley effect however will be strongest among neutral and Dem swing voters.

2 & 3. McCain & Palin -- moderate Dem benefit. The "wingnuts" most motivated by her are already in the Republican base. She has a very strong, and very negative, impact on all swing voters, moderate Reps are motivated to not vote, and neutral & moderate Dems are motivated to vote against her. The Reps have 2 years to get their house in order; if she gets the Rep nod for 2012 then that will be another Dem landslide. My gut feel is that she was the cause of a lot of the swing states turning blue. I wouldn't go so far as to say she cost McCain the election, but a better choice for second seat could have made for a *very* different election. They took McCain's single biggest weakness -- his age/health -- and aggravated it; you look at Biden and think Obama's interested in his advice & contacts, you look at Palin and think she's a president in waiting and hope to hell nobody's going to her for advice.

4. Active Diebold -- no effect.
It's not there; there's a bit of incompetence, and a bit of arse-covering, but there is no cabal.

5. Passive Diebold -- moderate random effect, slight Rep benefit.
Yep, this is a problem.


I'll have more to say on the election Real Soon Now, but check out this the map in this article, which pretty much confirms your argument under point (1):

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Books We are Reading