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Tuesday, 04 November 2008



There is no Bradley Effect - repeat after me. :)


We'll see this evening!


Maybe I'm cheating writing this afterwards, but I wasn't paying attention yesterday...

1. Bradley -- slight Republican benefit.
While it exists it's less than 7% and quite localised; it'll be highest in safe Republican states. Among the Dems who may not vote for Obama because he's black it'll be most common among the swing voters -- the Dem core is fairly immune to BE. The reverse Bradley effect however will be strongest among neutral and Dem swing voters.

2 & 3. McCain & Palin -- moderate Dem benefit. The "wingnuts" most motivated by her are already in the Republican base. She has a very strong, and very negative, impact on all swing voters, moderate Reps are motivated to not vote, and neutral & moderate Dems are motivated to vote against her. The Reps have 2 years to get their house in order; if she gets the Rep nod for 2012 then that will be another Dem landslide. My gut feel is that she was the cause of a lot of the swing states turning blue. I wouldn't go so far as to say she cost McCain the election, but a better choice for second seat could have made for a *very* different election. They took McCain's single biggest weakness -- his age/health -- and aggravated it; you look at Biden and think Obama's interested in his advice & contacts, you look at Palin and think she's a president in waiting and hope to hell nobody's going to her for advice.

4. Active Diebold -- no effect.
It's not there; there's a bit of incompetence, and a bit of arse-covering, but there is no cabal.

5. Passive Diebold -- moderate random effect, slight Rep benefit.
Yep, this is a problem.


I'll have more to say on the election Real Soon Now, but check out this the map in this article, which pretty much confirms your argument under point (1):

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